The calorie pipeline
Three steps under the hood:
- BMR via Mifflin-St Jeor (1990). The American Dietetic Association's 2005 systematic review found this the most accurate predictive equation for the general adult population — better than Harris-Benedict, Owen, or WHO/FAO/UNU.
- TDEE = BMR × activity factor (PAL). 1.2 sedentary → 1.9 very active. Most people overestimate by one tier; pick the level that matches what you actually do, not what you aspire to.
- Goal offset. Subtract for weight loss or add for gain: ±250 / ±500 / ±750 kcal/day for slow / standard / aggressive rates.
The 7700 kcal ≈ 1 kg fat rule (Wishnofsky, JAMA 1958) is the textbook starting point but overstates real-world fat loss — metabolism adapts down during a deficit, lean mass changes, and water/glycogen swings show up on the scale.